October 11, 2026 · Prepared for native save at 4:35 AM PDT. Official sources checked starting at 4:06 AM PDT; advisories rechecked at 4:33 AM PDT. Product issue and observation times remain separate.
01 · Weather ahead · October 11, 2026
KirkwoodMtn: colder air and light mountain snow chances.
Sunday, October 11, 2026 · Morning edition · official sources checked starting at 4:06 AM PDT.
¡Buenos días my friends,
Cup’ ☕️’ Joe in hand, #StokeLevel @12.9, here’s what’s on-tap for the day ahead…
At KSEF’s 7,966-foot mountain point, Sunday reaches 52°F before easing toward 47°F. Tonight falls to 32°F before rising toward 34°F. Rain chances start after 11 AM today; a chance of snow follows tonight. Today’s south-southwest wind is around 8 mph, gusting to 32 mph. The separate 8,268-foot regional grid reaches 49°F.
Forecast edition, observations & live views
Forecast edition: Sunday, October 11, 2026 · Morning edition · official sources checked starting at 4:06 AM PDT.. One daily edition starts at 4 a.m. Pacific; completion time varies.
Observations: station and lake measurements keep their individual source times. Previous-day readings are snapshots.
Live views: radar, lake feeds and cameras can update independently. A new page revision time does not refresh an older forecast or reading.
Explore Tahoe by place & elevation
Orientation sketch, not to scale. Select a point to update its forecast and seven-day view. The 7,966-foot and 8,268-foot points are distinct locations; neither represents every elevation on the mountain.
DAY & NIGHT FORECAST
Pick a place. Follow the weather.
Choose a day or night to compare temperature, wind and forecast snow. Times are Pacific.
Kirkwood mountain point · 7,966 ft · Sun 10/11 Daytime
A chance of rain after 11am
Temperature · °F
Read the full source tables below for every forecast period.
Compare locations for this period
Official NWS mountain point west of Carson Pass. Updated Oct 11, 2:01 AM PDT. Daytime and following overnight periods start Sunday morning; the preceding overnight is excluded.
NWS mountain point west of Carson Pass. Snow amount is unavailable for this point in this edition; the 8,268-foot grid is a separate forecast.
Read the official forecast ↗THE WEEK AT A GLANCE
Follow the next change.
Kirkwood mountain point · 7,966 ft
Sun Oct 11
52° / 32°Chance Light Rain Day: SSW 8 mph Night: S 1 to 5 mph
Mon Oct 12
41° / 25°Chance Light Snow Day: WSW 2 mph Night: NNW 1 to 5 mph
Tue Oct 13
50° / 32°Widespread Frost then Sunny Day: NE 2 to 6 mph Night: NE 2 to 6 mph
Wed Oct 14
58° / 37°Sunny Day: NE 2 to 7 mph Night: ENE 2 to 16 mph
Thu Oct 15
60° / 39°Sunny Day: ENE 3 to 16 mph Night: ENE 3 to 16 mph
Fri Oct 16
64° / 41°Sunny Day: NNE 1 to 16 mph Night: ENE 1 to 5 mph
Sat Oct 17
63° / —/ unavailable Sunny Day: SW 3 mph Night: unavailable
Daytime high / overnight low, °F. Select a place above to compare the week ahead. Unavailable overnight forecasts are labeled.
Full forecast text · today & tonight
Sunday · October 11
Official point forecasts. The 7,966-foot KSEF mountain point and 8,268-foot regional grid are separate locations.
KSEF mountain point
7,966 ft · NWS forecast point
Sunday: A chance of rain after 11am. Mostly sunny. High near 52, with temperatures falling to around 47 in the afternoon. South southwest wind around 8 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Sunday Night: A slight chance of rain before 11pm, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy. Low around 32, with temperatures rising to around 34 overnight. South wind 1 to 5 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Issued Oct 11, 2:01 AM PDT.
Official NWS forecast ↗South Lake Tahoe
6,293 ft · NWS forecast point
Sunday: A slight chance of rain showers after 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 55. South wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Sunday Night: A chance of rain showers before 5am, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. South wind 0 to 5 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Issued Oct 10, 11:30 PM PDT.
Official NWS forecast ↗KirkwoodMtn regional grid
8,268 ft · NWS forecast point
Sunday: A chance of rain after 11am. Mostly sunny. High near 49, with temperatures falling to around 44 in the afternoon. South southwest wind 7 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Sunday Night: A slight chance of rain before 8pm, then a slight chance of snow between 8pm and 9pm, then areas of frost and a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy. Low around 31, with temperatures rising to around 33 overnight. South wind 3 to 7 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Issued Oct 11, 2:01 AM PDT.
Official NWS forecast ↗Olympic Valley
6,283 ft · NWS forecast point
Sunday: A slight chance of rain showers between 11am and 5pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 58. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Sunday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers after 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 29. West wind 0 to 5 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Issued Oct 10, 11:30 PM PDT.
Official NWS forecast ↗Kirkwood seven-day forecast · full text
KirkwoodMtn October 11 to October 17 · 7,966-foot point
Official NWS mountain point west of Carson Pass. Updated Oct 11, 2:01 AM PDT. Daytime and following overnight periods start Sunday morning; the preceding overnight is excluded.
Sunday
A chance of rain after 11am. Mostly sunny. High near 52, with temperatures falling to around 47 in the afternoon. South southwest wind around 8 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Sunday Night
A slight chance of rain before 11pm, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy. Low around 32, with temperatures rising to around 34 overnight. South wind 1 to 5 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Columbus Day
A chance of snow before 2pm, then rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. West southwest wind around 2 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Monday Night
Rain likely before 8pm, then snow likely between 8pm and 5am, then widespread frost. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. North northwest wind 1 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than half an inch possible.
Tuesday
Widespread frost before 11am. Sunny, with a high near 50.
Tuesday Night
Clear, with a low around 32.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 58.
Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low around 37.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 60.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 39.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 64.
Friday Night
Clear, with a low around 41.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 63.
Seven-day regional comparison · full table
October 11 to October 17 · Seven days, day and night
| Day | KSEF mountain point · 7,966 ft | South Lake Tahoe · 6,293 ft | KirkwoodMtn regional grid · 8,268 ft | Olympic Valley · 6,283 ft |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 11 | 52° / 32°Chance Light RainDay: SSW 8 mphNight: S 1 to 5 mph | 55° / 32°Slight Chance Rain ShowersDay: S 5 to 10 mphNight: S 0 to 5 mph | 49° / 31°Chance Light RainDay: SSW 7 to 10 mphNight: S 3 to 7 mph | 58° / 29°Slight Chance Rain ShowersDay: SW 5 to 10 mphNight: W 0 to 5 mph |
| Mon Oct 12 | 41° / 25°Chance Light SnowDay: WSW 2 mphNight: NNW 1 to 5 mph | 43° / 27°Rain And Snow Showers LikelyDay: W 0 to 5 mphNight: 0 mph | 38° / 27°Light Snow LikelyDay: WSW 5 mphNight: NW 2 to 8 mph | 48° / 24°Rain And Snow Showers LikelyDay: 0 mphNight: N 0 to 5 mph |
| Tue Oct 13 | 50° / 32°Widespread Frost then SunnyDay: NE 2 to 6 mphNight: NE 2 to 6 mph | 50° / 33°SunnyDay: NE 0 to 5 mphNight: 0 mph | 47° / 32°Widespread Frost then SunnyDay: NNE 2 to 9 mphNight: NE 2 to 12 mph | 57° / 28°SunnyDay: NE 0 to 5 mphNight: NE 0 to 5 mph |
| Wed Oct 14 | 58° / 37°SunnyDay: NE 2 to 7 mphNight: ENE 2 to 16 mph | 57° / 36°SunnyDay: E 0 to 5 mphNight: E 0 to 5 mph | 54° / 38°SunnyDay: NE 2 to 12 mphNight: NE 2 to 18 mph | 63° / 33°SunnyDay: NE 0 to 5 mphNight: NE 0 to 15 mph |
| Thu Oct 15 | 60° / 39°SunnyDay: ENE 3 to 16 mphNight: ENE 3 to 16 mph | 58° / 37°SunnyDay: E 5 mphNight: E 5 to 10 mph | 57° / 39°SunnyDay: ENE 3 to 18 mphNight: ENE 3 to 20 mph | 64° / 34°SunnyDay: E 0 to 10 mphNight: E 0 to 15 mph |
| Fri Oct 16 | 64° / 41°SunnyDay: NNE 1 to 16 mphNight: ENE 1 to 5 mph | 61° / 41°SunnyDay: NE 0 to 5 mphNight: 0 mph | 61° / 41°SunnyDay: NNE 1 to 18 mphNight: ENE 2 to 7 mph | 67° / 35°SunnyDay: E 0 to 15 mphNight: E 0 to 10 mph |
| Sat Oct 17 | 63° / unavailableSunnyDay: SW 3 mphNight: unavailable | 65° / unavailableSunnyDay: SW 0 to 5 mphNight: unavailable | 60° / unavailableSunnyDay: WSW 2 to 6 mphNight: unavailable | 69° / unavailableSunnyDay: SW 0 to 5 mphNight: unavailable |
Point issue times: KSEF mountain point Oct 11, 2:01 AM PDT; South Lake Tahoe Oct 10, 11:30 PM PDT; KirkwoodMtn regional grid Oct 11, 2:01 AM PDT; Olympic Valley Oct 10, 11:30 PM PDT. Missing periods remain unavailable.
YOUR MOUNTAIN, IN VIEW
Look toward the Kirkwood ridgeline.
KirkwoodMtn · Cornice Cam. Compare the sky and mountain view with the forecast above.
Resort camera feed. Read the camera’s own timestamp; its clock is separate from the morning forecast. A frozen or unavailable feed is not a current observation.
Explore all five resort cameras ↗Camera loads when selected.
Observed weather · NOAA / National Weather Service
Live NEXRAD radar · Tahoe & the Sierra
Recent radar reflectivity from NOAA’s regional composite. The map keeps NOAA’s colors and reports the actual observation time.
Observation time loading.
NOAA radar loads when this section comes into view. It checks for new observations every five minutes while visible.
Source: NOAA NWS / MRMS, using the NEXRAD network. Observation age and feed availability are shown above. Reflectivity is different from measured snowfall. State boundaries: NWS. Place labels are geographic references.
Official forecast sources
KirkwoodMtn forecast desk
The linked Kirkwood point is 5 miles west of Carson Pass, about 7,966 ft. Owens Camp (OWNC1), shown as current conditions on that NWS page, is a separate 5,240-foot observation station. Neither replaces the higher-elevation KirkwoodMtn instruments below.
Coop’s mountain perspective
Coop’s mountain read · October 11
Colder air, light showers and high Sierra snow chances.
StokeLevel @12.9, friends. Ole Neptune’s first wave is meeting Rachel’s leftover moisture, but #NoOverStoking: the plume’s position and colder air still decide how much reaches our mountains. Tahoe and KirkwoodMtn have light showers on deck, with high Sierra snow chances into Monday. MammothMtn and the higher terrain remain in the snow picture too. Monday’s shower timing matters as snow levels fall after sunset. Stay tuned and thirsty. The 26/27 PowHunt’n season is around the bend.
NWS Reno’s October 11, 2:40 AM PDT discussion gives the Sierra and Sierra Front a 20–50% precipitation chance today. Snow on the highest peaks is limited to up to an inch through early Monday. Snow levels are around 6,500–7,500 feet early Monday, rising to 7,000–7,500 feet in the afternoon, then falling toward 6,000–6,500 feet near sunset. It gives a 20–40% chance of up to four inches at the top of Mt. Rose, Tioga Pass or MammothMtn; these are regional possibilities, not resort totals. Sacramento’s October 10, 2:33 PM PDT discussion forecasts 0.5–4 inches mainly above 7,000 feet, with 2–4 inches possible at the highest peaks and uncertainty in amounts. Its outlook favors the first measurable Sierra snow Sunday night through Monday. Drying and gradual warming return from Tuesday.
#StokeLevel @12.9 is personal enthusiasm, separate from forecast confidence.
Big Blue, year round
Lake Tahoe water, waves & level
Lake feeds refresh independently when available. Forecast issue time, buoy observation time and USGS measurement time are different.
Sources checked October 11. Each feed retains its own observation and issue time.
Mid-lake water temperature
61.0°F
NWS bulletin’s buoy reportWave forecast · see issue time
Less than 1 foot today and tonight
Mid-lake waters and downwind shoresLake level at Tahoe City
6226.81 ft
USGS · U.S. Bureau of Reclamation datumChange from the prior day
-0.03 ft
Same station, same Pacific clock timeNWS Reno recreation forecast issued October 11 at 2:32 AM PDT. Water temperature observation time is not specified.
Sources checked October 11. Each feed retains its own observation and issue time.
USGS Oct 11, 4:00 AM PDT · provisional. Elevation is 6,220 ft plus gage height in the USBR datum; change compares the same Pacific clock time one day earlier.
October 11 NWS recreation bulletin · original source text
Relative time words in this official bulletin refer to October 11, 2026. The NWS bulletin level is separate from the USGS measurement.
Lake Tahoe at Lake Level-232 AM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026 .TODAY...Sunny in the morning, then partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Light winds becoming southwest around 10 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon. Highs 53 to 59. Wave Heights less than 1 foot. .TONIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Southwest winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Lows 29 to 34. Wave Heights less than 1 foot. .COLUMBUS DAY...Showers likely. Light winds. Highs 43 to 48. Wave Heights less than 1 foot. Water Temperature at the Mid Lake Buoys......61.0 degrees. Lake Level for Lake Tahoe at Tahoe City......6228.29 feet.Official NWS source ↗
Lake wind timeline · Windfinder
Wind direction & local weather
Wind & weather at Sandy Way
South Lake Tahoe / Sandy Way: wind, gusts and the next two days.
Reference graphic from September 25. Current Windfinder guidance appears in the live two-day forecast below, with its own provider times.
Reference graphic from September 25. Current Windfinder guidance appears in the live two-day forecast below, with its own provider times.
Two-day Windfinder forecast
Swipe across to see all hours. Source: Windfinder. Wind: knots · Temperature: °F · Rain: inches · Pressure: hPa · Waves, when available: feet.
Open Windfinder · S Lake Tahoe / Sandy Way ↗
Wind direction: SW means wind from the southwest, blowing toward the northeast.
Units: Windfinder uses knots. One knot is about 1.15 mph; the NAM gust charts below use mph. Source: Windfinder.
Caltrans · Tahoe roads & conditions
Checked Oct 11, 2026 · 0406 PDT · refreshed with the daily editions
SR88
Silver Lake → Carson Spur / Carson Pass → Woodfords
No traffic restrictions are reported for this area.
This highway information is the latest reported as of Sunday, October 11th, 2026 at 04:06 AM.Hwy50
Pollock Pines → Kyburz / Echo Summit → South Lake Tahoe
No Caltrans notice identified within this corridor.
This highway information is the latest reported as of Sunday, October 11th, 2026 at 04:06 AM.I80
Emigrant Gap / Nyack → Donner Summit → Truckee / Nevada line
All westbound trucks are required to stop at the brake check area 0.5 mi west of Nyack (Placer Co) - To reduced the risk of brake fires
This highway information is the latest reported as of Sunday, October 11th, 2026 at 04:06 AM.Closures and chain controls: use the Caltrans links above for the latest reports.
Model guidance · precipitation, wind & temperature
WeatherBell Analytics · NAM 3km · US States › California
Forecast model guidance
The local forecast context
Point issue times: KSEF mountain point Oct 11, 2:01 AM PDT; South Lake Tahoe Oct 10, 11:30 PM PDT; KirkwoodMtn regional grid Oct 11, 2:01 AM PDT; Olympic Valley Oct 10, 11:30 PM PDT. Missing periods remain unavailable.
That is the NWS regional discussion. The model maps below are separate guidance: compare their valid periods, location and units before reading a local amount.
Start with the point forecasts above, then compare precipitation, wind and temperature. These are forecasts; the live NOAA radar shows observations.
New guidance initialized Oct 10 · 11:00 PM PDT. Each map states its actual valid period and units.
Precipitation · Guidance / Models · 4 views
Liquid precipitation and snowfall use different quantities. Use the separately labeled point snow forecast for local amounts.
MSLP · 6-hour precipitation · T850
Precipitation in inches · pressure hPa · temperature °C
A six-hour liquid-precipitation window with surface pressure and temperature at 850mb. The current native export uses inches; 1 inch = 25.4 mm.
Valid Oct 11 · 5:00 AM PDT through Oct 13 · 11:00 AM PDT. 55 distinct forecast frames. Source: WeatherBell / NOAA NCEP.
First, middle & last forecast frames · PNG
First · Oct 11 · 5:00 AM PDT ↗
Last · Oct 13 · 11:00 AM PDT ↗Reflectivity Type
Reflectivity dBZ · precipitation type
Modeled radar echoes and precipitation type. Compare timing with the observed NOAA radar above.
Valid Oct 10 · 11:00 PM PDT through Oct 13 · 11:00 AM PDT. 61 distinct forecast frames. Source: WeatherBell / NOAA NCEP.
First, middle & last forecast frames · PNG
First · Oct 10 · 11:00 PM PDT ↗
Last · Oct 13 · 11:00 AM PDT ↗Precipitation total
Liquid precipitation · inches
Accumulated liquid precipitation since initialization, through the valid time on each frame. This is not a snowfall total.
Valid Oct 11 · 12:00 AM PDT through Oct 13 · 11:00 AM PDT. 60 distinct forecast frames. Source: WeatherBell / NOAA NCEP.
First, middle & last forecast frames · PNG
First · Oct 11 · 12:00 AM PDT ↗
Last · Oct 13 · 11:00 AM PDT ↗Precipitation total · 24 hours
Rolling 24-hour liquid precipitation · inches
Precipitation during the 24 hours ending at each frame’s valid time. These overlapping windows must not be added together.
Valid Oct 11 · 11:00 PM PDT through Oct 13 · 11:00 AM PDT. 37 distinct forecast frames. Source: WeatherBell / NOAA NCEP.
First, middle & last forecast frames · PNG
First · Oct 11 · 11:00 PM PDT ↗
Last · Oct 13 · 11:00 AM PDT ↗Wind · Guidance / Models · 5 views
Separate sustained wind, gusts and accumulated maximum gusts. Model wind and station observations have different times and locations.
0–6 km wind shear
Wind-vector difference · knots
Change in the wind vector between the surface and 6 km. The native map is labeled knots; WeatherBell’s menu lists m/s². We retain the map’s actual units. 1 knot = 0.514444 m/s.
Valid Oct 10 · 11:00 PM PDT through Oct 13 · 11:00 AM PDT. 61 distinct forecast frames. Source: WeatherBell / NOAA NCEP.
First, middle & last forecast frames · PNG
First · Oct 10 · 11:00 PM PDT ↗
Last · Oct 13 · 11:00 AM PDT ↗10m wind gust
Gust speed · mph
Forecast gust magnitude near the surface. Gust speed alone does not establish wind direction.
Valid Oct 11 · 12:00 AM PDT through Oct 13 · 11:00 AM PDT. 60 distinct forecast frames. Source: WeatherBell / NOAA NCEP.
First, middle & last forecast frames · PNG
First · Oct 11 · 12:00 AM PDT ↗
Last · Oct 13 · 11:00 AM PDT ↗10m wind speed
Wind speed and streamlines · mph
Near-surface wind speed and modeled flow. Exposed ridges and sheltered terrain can differ.
Valid Oct 10 · 11:00 PM PDT through Oct 13 · 11:00 AM PDT. 61 distinct forecast frames. Source: WeatherBell / NOAA NCEP.
First, middle & last forecast frames · PNG
First · Oct 10 · 11:00 PM PDT ↗
Last · Oct 13 · 11:00 AM PDT ↗10m wind gust swath
Accumulated maximum gust · mph
Highest forecast gust reached since initialization, through each valid time. This is not the wind at a single instant.
Valid Oct 11 · 12:00 AM PDT through Oct 13 · 11:00 AM PDT. 60 distinct forecast frames. Source: WeatherBell / NOAA NCEP.
First, middle & last forecast frames · PNG
First · Oct 11 · 12:00 AM PDT ↗
Last · Oct 13 · 11:00 AM PDT ↗925mb wind speed · MSLP
Wind knots · sea-level pressure hPa
Flow at the 925mb pressure level, with sea-level pressure. This level can lie below Sierra terrain; it is not a summit-wind forecast.
Valid Oct 10 · 11:00 PM PDT through Oct 13 · 11:00 AM PDT. 61 distinct forecast frames. Source: WeatherBell / NOAA NCEP.
First, middle & last forecast frames · PNG
First · Oct 10 · 11:00 PM PDT ↗
Last · Oct 13 · 11:00 AM PDT ↗Temperature · Guidance / Models · 3 views
Rolling maximum/minimum maps cover the preceding 24 hours. A temperature-change map is a difference, not the forecast temperature.
2m temperature · 24-hour maximum
Rolling 24-hour maximum · °F
Highest near-surface temperature in the preceding 24 hours.
Valid Oct 11 · 11:00 PM PDT through Oct 13 · 11:00 AM PDT. 7 distinct forecast frames. Source: WeatherBell / NOAA NCEP.
First, middle & last forecast frames · PNG
First · Oct 11 · 11:00 PM PDT ↗
Last · Oct 13 · 11:00 AM PDT ↗2m temperature · 24-hour minimum
Rolling 24-hour minimum · °F
Lowest near-surface temperature in the preceding 24 hours.
Valid Oct 11 · 11:00 PM PDT through Oct 13 · 11:00 AM PDT. 7 distinct forecast frames. Source: WeatherBell / NOAA NCEP.
First, middle & last forecast frames · PNG
First · Oct 11 · 11:00 PM PDT ↗
Last · Oct 13 · 11:00 AM PDT ↗2m temperature · 24-hour change
Temperature difference · °F
Change from the same valid hour one day earlier. Positive values mean warmer; negative values mean colder.
Valid Oct 11 · 11:00 PM PDT through Oct 13 · 11:00 AM PDT. 37 distinct forecast frames. Source: WeatherBell / NOAA NCEP.
First, middle & last forecast frames · PNG
First · Oct 11 · 11:00 PM PDT ↗
Last · Oct 13 · 11:00 AM PDT ↗Additional NAM views · six-hour precipitation & temperature
NAM 3km six-hour precipitation
Liquid precipitation · inches
Initialized Oct 10, 11:00 PM PDT. Valid Oct 11, 5:00 AM PDT through Oct 13, 11:00 AM PDT. 55 forecast frames. Source: WeatherBell.
First, middle & last source frames
First · Oct 11, 5:00 AM PDT ↗
Last · Oct 13, 11:00 AM PDT ↗NAM 3km California temperature
2m air temperature · °F
Initialized Oct 10, 11:00 PM PDT. Valid Oct 10, 11:00 PM PDT through Oct 13, 11:00 AM PDT. 61 forecast frames. Source: WeatherBell.
First, middle & last source frames
First · Oct 10, 11:00 PM PDT ↗
Last · Oct 13, 11:00 AM PDT ↗Sources checked October 11 starting at 4:06 AM PDT. NWS Reno discussion: October 11 at 2:40 AM PDT. NWS Sacramento discussion: October 10 at 2:33 PM PDT. Each forecast and observation retains its own issue or reading time.
Reno forecast discussion ↗ · Sacramento forecast discussion ↗
Forecast: NWS · Maps: WeatherBell / NOAA.
GOES-West · California observations
Infrared satellite observations, not a forecast or seasonal diagnosis.
GOES-West [CONUS] 0.02° · California
ABI Channel 13 brightness temperature · °C
![GOES-West [CONUS] 0.02° · California · Observed Oct 10, 7:48 PM PDT through Oct 11, 4:08 AM PDT.](https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/6627bd7c18b72448db6dc807/7acf37a5-5470-48bc-9f74-0fc7d0119e71/goes_west_20261011_Middle.png?content-type=image%2Fpng)
Observed Oct 10, 7:48 PM PDT through Oct 11, 4:08 AM PDT. 35 source frames. Source: WeatherBell.
First, middle & last source frames
![GOES-West [CONUS] 0.02° · California · First · Oct 10, 7:48 PM PDT](https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/6627bd7c18b72448db6dc807/ff37987c-2d81-4930-8890-a4d3903e46a1/goes_west_20261011_First.png?content-type=image%2Fpng)
First · Oct 10, 7:48 PM PDT ↗![GOES-West [CONUS] 0.02° · California · Last · Oct 11, 4:08 AM PDT](https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/6627bd7c18b72448db6dc807/c1c5608d-9a67-4692-8ba4-db1bd899526d/goes_west_20261011_Last.png?content-type=image%2Fpng)
Last · Oct 11, 4:08 AM PDT ↗GFS guidance · Continental United States
Deterministic GFS precipitation type/rate and simulated reflectivity. Source: Pivotal Weather / NOAA NCEP. Model guidance is not an observation.
GFS precipitation type and rate
Liquid-equivalent precipitation rate · inches/hour
Initialized Oct 10, 11:00 PM PDT. Valid Oct 11, 5:00 AM PDT through Oct 26, 11:00 PM PDT. 64 source frames. Source: Pivotal Weather · GFS / NOAA.
First, middle & last source frames
First · Oct 11, 5:00 AM PDT ↗
Last · Oct 26, 11:00 PM PDT ↗GFS composite reflectivity
Simulated radar reflectivity · dBZ
Initialized Oct 10, 11:00 PM PDT. Valid Oct 10, 11:00 PM PDT through Oct 26, 11:00 PM PDT. 105 source frames. Source: Pivotal Weather · GFS / NOAA.
First, middle & last source frames
First · Oct 10, 11:00 PM PDT ↗
Last · Oct 26, 11:00 PM PDT ↗October 11 forecast briefing
These summary slides complement the scientific maps and retain the source issue dates.
02 · Winter 2026/27
Snow, resorts & first turns.
First chair dates. Fresh snow. The season tally. Frothy for #PowHunt’n Season.
Thanksgiving 2026 · Coop’s season kickoff
Coop’s kickoff date; resort opening dates may differ.
Storm watch & snow language
Winter 2026/27 · Sierra storm watch
Cold air. Moisture. Mountain life.
From the Sierra Crest to Tahoe and MammothMtn, we’re watching where the moisture lands, when the cold air arrives and how the snow stacks up. Skiers, riders, SledNecks and backcountry friends, this is our winter weather desk.
Colder air and showers through Monday
Light showers increase today and Monday. Colder air brings high-elevation snow chances; Monday evening’s shower timing affects accumulations.
We watch the Pacific storm track, the moisture tap and the cold air together. An atmospheric river alone does not establish powder conditions.
Base building to #ColdSmokePow
October through December 24, base-building storms get the season started. Once the base is established, colder storms and lighter snow are the prize.
Coop’s snow language: about 10:1 is #SchmooPow; 15:1 and higher is #ColdSmokePow. Wet, dense snow earns #BaseBuilder, #SierraCement or #GorillaSnot when the conditions fit.
A 10:1 model map uses a fixed conversion: one inch of liquid to ten inches of snow. It does not predict a 15:1 powder ratio. Snow ratios describe water content, not avalanche danger or terrain readiness.
We’ll raise the stoke when the cold air, moisture and timing come together. For now, keep an eye on the dated forecast above.
Day & night snowfall · full source tables
Forecast snow · daytime vs overnight
Snow timing, wind & temperatures
Daytime is 6 a.m.–6 p.m.; overnight is 6 p.m.–6 a.m. the following day, Pacific time. Snow values below are the NWS point forecasts for those exact periods. They are separate from recent measured snowfall.
Kirkwood mountain point · 8,268 ft
| Period · Pacific | Forecast snow | High / low | Wind | Sky / weather |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 10/11 Daytime | 0 in | 49°F | SSW 7 to 10 mph | Chance Light Rain |
| Sun 10/11 Overnight | Unavailable | 31°F | S 3 to 7 mph | Slight Chance Light Snow then Areas Of Frost |
| Mon 10/12 Daytime | Unavailable | 38°F | WSW 5 mph | Light Snow Likely |
| Mon 10/12 Overnight | Unavailable | 27°F | NW 2 to 8 mph | Light Snow Likely |
| Tue 10/13 Daytime | 0 in | 47°F | NNE 2 to 9 mph | Widespread Frost then Sunny |
| Tue 10/13 Overnight | 0 in | 32°F | NE 2 to 12 mph | Clear |
NWS grid updated Oct 11 · 2:01 AM PDT. Official point data ↗
Compare the other Tahoe forecast points
South Lake Tahoe
| Period · Pacific | Forecast snow | High / low | Wind | Sky / weather |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 10/11 Daytime | 0 in | 55°F | S 5 to 10 mph | Slight Chance Rain Showers |
| Sun 10/11 Overnight | 0 in | 32°F | S 0 to 5 mph | Chance Rain Showers then Chance Rain And Snow Showers |
| Mon 10/12 Daytime | 0 in | 43°F | W 0 to 5 mph | Rain And Snow Showers Likely |
| Mon 10/12 Overnight | 0 in | 27°F | 0 mph | Rain And Snow Showers Likely |
| Tue 10/13 Daytime | 0 in | 50°F | NE 0 to 5 mph | Sunny |
| Tue 10/13 Overnight | 0 in | 33°F | 0 mph | Clear |
NWS grid updated Oct 10 · 11:30 PM PDT. Official point data ↗
Olympic Valley
| Period · Pacific | Forecast snow | High / low | Wind | Sky / weather |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 10/11 Daytime | 0 in | 58°F | SW 5 to 10 mph | Slight Chance Rain Showers |
| Sun 10/11 Overnight | 0 in | 29°F | W 0 to 5 mph | Chance Rain And Snow Showers |
| Mon 10/12 Daytime | 0 in | 48°F | 0 mph | Rain And Snow Showers Likely |
| Mon 10/12 Overnight | 0 in | 24°F | N 0 to 5 mph | Chance Rain And Snow Showers then Partly Cloudy |
| Tue 10/13 Daytime | 0 in | 57°F | NE 0 to 5 mph | Sunny |
| Tue 10/13 Overnight | 0 in | 28°F | NE 0 to 5 mph | Clear |
NWS grid updated Oct 10 · 11:30 PM PDT. Official point data ↗
Snow-to-liquid ratio
No verified variable SLR forecast is available in this edition. Total-snow maps labeled 10:1 assume ten inches of snow per inch of liquid. That fixed assumption is not a predicted snow density.
Recent snowfall
The resort table below separates verified 24-hour, 48-hour, seven-day and season totals. An unavailable report remains unavailable.
Recent snow reports ↓Recent weather conditions
Use timestamped mountain instruments for observed wind and temperature, then compare with the forecasts above.
Mountain observations ↓Collected for the 2026-10-11 morning edition; source check Oct 11 · 4:06 AM PDT. The 8,268-foot Kirkwood grid is distinct from KSEF’s 7,966-foot headline point. Point totals do not describe every Sierra elevation.
Snow model guidance · California
Fixed 10:1 snowfall is an assumption, not a variable snow-to-liquid ratio or a resort observation.
NAM 3km total snow
Inches · fixed 10:1 ratio
Initialized Oct 10, 11:00 PM PDT. Valid Oct 11, 12:00 AM PDT through Oct 13, 11:00 AM PDT. 60 source frames. Source: WeatherBell.
First, middle & last source frames
First · Oct 11, 12:00 AM PDT ↗
Last · Oct 13, 11:00 AM PDT ↗NAM 3km 12-hour snow
Inches · fixed 10:1 ratio
Initialized Oct 10, 11:00 PM PDT. Valid Oct 11, 11:00 AM PDT through Oct 13, 11:00 AM PDT. 49 source frames. Source: WeatherBell.
First, middle & last source frames
First · Oct 11, 11:00 AM PDT ↗
Last · Oct 13, 11:00 AM PDT ↗RRFS Para v1 3km total snow
Inches · fixed 10:1 ratio
Initialized Oct 10, 11:00 PM PDT. Valid Oct 11, 12:00 AM PDT through Oct 14, 11:00 AM PDT. 84 source frames. Source: WeatherBell.
First, middle & last source frames
First · Oct 11, 12:00 AM PDT ↗
Last · Oct 14, 11:00 AM PDT ↗RRFS Para v1 3km 12-hour snow
Inches · fixed 10:1 ratio
Initialized Oct 10, 11:00 PM PDT. Valid Oct 11, 11:00 AM PDT through Oct 14, 11:00 AM PDT. 73 source frames. Source: WeatherBell.
First, middle & last source frames
First · Oct 11, 11:00 AM PDT ↗
Last · Oct 14, 11:00 AM PDT ↗Official avalanche sources
Avalanche forecasts & advisories
Center-issued ratings, forecast periods and regional bulletins. These sources report avalanche problems by elevation and aspect. An unavailable or expired rating is not a Low rating.
Central Sierra Nevada
Sierra Avalanche Center
Off-season · no current dated rating
Checked October 11 at 4:12 AM PDT. SAC is marked off-season; both official map-layer feeds returned no current dated danger rating. The SAC and ESAC websites were reachable. Consult the full official forecasts; missing is not Low danger.
Read the full avalanche forecast ↗Eastside Region
Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center
No current dated danger rating
Checked October 11 at 4:12 AM PDT. SAC is marked off-season; both official map-layer feeds returned no current dated danger rating. The SAC and ESAC websites were reachable. Consult the full official forecasts; missing is not Low danger.
Read the full avalanche forecast ↗Live rating summaries: Avalanche.org / National Avalanche Center. Forecast coverage has boundaries. These cards do not replace the full center bulletin or observations along your route.
Avalanche sources checked October 11 at 4:12 AM PDT. Neither center supplied a current, dated danger rating.
Resort opening dates
2026/27 · First chair watch
Bull Wheels begin to spin.
Who spins first? Announced dates run earliest to latest. Dates can move with the snow and weather. Resorts without a confirmed date stay on the watch list below.
MammothMtn
Planned opening
Bull Wheels turn onNov 13, 202633 daysResort update ↗Last verified Oct 7 · current recheck unavailablePalisades Tahoe
Planned opening
Bull Wheels turn onNov 25, 202645 daysResort update ↗Last verified Oct 7 · current recheck unavailableSugar Bowl
Planned opening
Bull Wheels turn onNov 27, 202647 daysResort update ↗Resort snow report checked Oct 11 · target November 27KirkwoodMtn
Planned opening
Bull Wheels turn onDec 4, 202654 daysResort update ↗Last verified Oct 7 · current recheck unavailableMt. Rose
Awaiting resort confirmation
Bull Wheels turn onDate not confirmedDate pendingResort update ↗Source checked Oct 11; no confirmed opening date
Sugar Bowl’s November 27 target is confirmed in its October 10 snow-report check. MammothMtn, Palisades and KirkwoodMtn retain their October 7 date verification; fresh opening-date checks were unavailable. Mt. Rose has no confirmed date. Resort dates remain subject to change.
UC Berkeley · Donner Summit research station
Independent Snow Lab benchmark
Checked October 11, 2026. The current public portal did not expose a full observation date for its reading. No fresh daily measurement is asserted. The September 25 water-year 2026 benchmark below is historical; water year 2027 began October 1.
The Central Sierra Snow Lab gives us a university research record to read alongside resort reports and model guidance. One consistent observation site helps put Sierra storms and the season in perspective.
Water year 2026: October 1, 2025 to September 30, 2026. CSSL portal snapshot checked September 25, 2026 at 08:07 PDT.
Accumulated snowfall
306.7 inches
85% of the 1991–2020 median to date.
Median: 360.2 inches.
Rain + snow precipitation
58.7 inches of water
96% of the 1991–2020 median to date.
Median: 61.0 inches of water.
These are the lab’s displayed water-year-to-date values from the September 25 portal check, not final September 30 totals, winter 26/27 snowfall or a forecast. Snowfall and liquid precipitation measure different things. The latest manual observation time was not provided with the portal summary, so recent 24-hour, 48-hour and seven-day totals are not repeated here as verified observations.
Historical context & how to compare
The lab-published archive covers water years 1971–2025, excluding 2020, with snowfall, snow depth, snow water equivalent, precipitation and temperature. Missing values and trace snowfall retain their original meaning.
Compare the same measurement, location and reporting window. The lab’s current snowfall schedule is stated as 8 a.m. PST, with updates by 9 a.m. PST on snow days. It does not match this page’s 0600–0600 Pacific resort reporting target. A Donner Summit station is a regional reference, not a substitute for conditions at each resort.
For seasonal comparisons, retain the source’s 1991–2020 median and published methods. Water-year totals, settled snow depth and new snowfall are separate records.
A dated current temperature reading could not be verified from the public portal. Undated readings are not treated as current observations.
Source: UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Laboratory; historical dataset by Andrew Schwartz and Randall Osterhuber, updated October 1, 2025.
Recent snowfall · verified reporting periods
First snow & the season tally
Measured snowfall · unavailable reports stay blank, not zero. Forecast snow is in the separate forecast table.
Sources checked Oct 11, 2026 · 0406 PDT · weather editions 0430 and 1900 Pacific
Reporting day: 0600–0600 Pacific, ending Oct 10, 2026 · 0600 PDT. All snowfall totals below are in inches.
| Mountain / measuring site | 24 hours 0600–0600 | 48 hours | Seven days | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KirkwoodMtnResort report (base readings) | — | — | — | — |
| Palisades TahoeThe Village | — | — | — | — |
| Sugar BowlSummit · 8,383 ft | — | — | — | — |
| MammothMtnMain Lodge | — | — | — | — |
| Mt. RoseResort report | — | — | — | — |
— = no verified total. Daily snowfall periods end at 0600 Pacific. Resort totals on other reporting schedules are listed below.
Report times & resort-reported totals
KirkwoodMtn: Report is not current. Resort snow-report time: Updated April 23, 2026 at 5:09 AM PDT.
Palisades Tahoe: Summer report; winter totals unavailable. Resort snow-report time: 2026-09-08T09:50:24-0700.
Sugar Bowl: Report is not current. Resort snow-report time: 04/05/2026 03:57 PM.
MammothMtn: Report is not current. Resort snow-report time: 2026-10-09T08:56:25-0700.
Mt. Rose: Source reachable; latest posted snow report July 20, 2026. Prior-season figures are not current snow measurements.. Resort snow-report time: not provided.
KirkwoodMtn observations · four instruments
KirkwoodMtn weather · peak to snowplots
Morning observations · not a continuously updating station feed. Each instrument keeps its own clock.
Stations checked Oct 11, 2026 · 0406 PDT · refreshed at 0430 and 1900 Pacific
Chair 6 peak · FT Tech wind
Observed Oct 11, 2026 · 0400 station clock
- Wind speed
- 24 mph
- Peak gust
- 30.4 mph
- Direction
- SW · 211°
Chair 6 ridge · weather station
Observed Oct 11, 2026 · 0400 station clock
- Wind speed
- 32.2 mph
- Peak gust
- 38.1 mph
- Direction
- SW · 204°
- Average direction
- SW · 210°
- Air temperature
- 36.2°F
- Humidity
- 75%
- Wet-bulb temperature
- 32.7°F
- Dew point
- 28.9°F
Hayflat Snowplot · 7,850 ft
Observed Oct 11, 2026 · 0405 station clock
—24-hour new snow
New-snow reading unavailable.
- Air temperature
- 41.7°F
- Humidity
- 66%
- Wet-bulb temperature
- 36.5°F
- Dew point
- 31.1°F
- Reported pressure
- 29.68 inHg
Whiskey Snowplot · 8,475 ft
Observed Oct 11, 2026 · 0355 station clock
—24-hour new snow
New-snow reading unavailable.
- Air temperature
- 40.2°F
- Humidity
- 66%
- Wet-bulb temperature
- 36.1°F
- Dew point
- 30°F
- Rain · 5-minute record
- 0 in
Snowplot totals follow the station’s reporting window; the 0600–0600 snow day is not yet confirmed. — = no usable reading.
Source: KirkwoodMtn weather stations
Regional ridge & buoy observations
Sierra Crest & Lake Tahoe Basin
Ridge winds & buoy observations
Saved station snapshot · individual observation dates are shown in every row. Older readings are labeled by age.
Temperature, dew point and wind from the NWS Reno remote-station network. Each instrument keeps its own reading and clock.
| Station | Air °F | Dew point °F | From | Wind mph | Gust mph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slide MountainSLIDE · 9650.0 ft | 34.2Oct 11, 3:40 AM PDT | 29.2Oct 11, 3:40 AM PDT | SOct 11, 3:40 AM PDT | 7.8Oct 11, 3:40 AM PDT | 15.9Oct 11, 3:40 AM PDT |
| Palisades · SiberiaSIBSV · 8700.0 ft | 37.2Oct 11, 4:00 AM PDT | 35.8Oct 11, 4:00 AM PDT | NOct 11, 4:00 AM PDT | 0.2Oct 11, 4:00 AM PDT | 1.2Oct 11, 4:00 AM PDT |
| Alpine Meadows · Ward Mt.SUMAM · Elevation differs by source | 38.5Oct 11, 4:00 AM PDT | 36.0Oct 11, 4:00 AM PDT | NOct 11, 4:00 AM PDT | 0.2Oct 11, 4:00 AM PDT | 0.2Oct 11, 4:00 AM PDT |
| MammothMtn · Top of 3MTH23 · 10448.0 ft | 32.6Oct 11, 4:10 AM PDT | 26.5Oct 11, 4:10 AM PDT | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| MammothMtn · Top of 22MTH02 · 10100.0 ft | 42.3Oct 11, 4:10 AM PDT | 32.7Oct 11, 4:10 AM PDT | SSWOct 11, 4:10 AM PDT | 26.8Oct 11, 4:10 AM PDT | 33.7Oct 11, 4:10 AM PDT |
| Tahoe NE buoyJPL01 · 6233.0 ft | 54.7Oct 11, 3:00 AM PDT | 34.3Oct 11, 3:00 AM PDT | SSEOct 11, 3:00 AM PDT | 12.5Oct 11, 3:00 AM PDT | 19.9Oct 11, 3:00 AM PDT |
| Tahoe NW buoyJPL04 · 6233.0 ft | 53.4Oct 11, 3:00 AM PDT | 37.8Oct 11, 3:00 AM PDT | SWOct 11, 3:00 AM PDT | 11.0Oct 11, 3:00 AM PDT | 17.9Oct 11, 3:00 AM PDT |
| Tahoe SE buoyJPL02 · 6233.0 ft | 54.3Oct 11, 3:00 AM PDT | 36.4Oct 11, 3:00 AM PDT | SSEOct 11, 3:00 AM PDT | 13.2Oct 11, 3:00 AM PDT | 19.2Oct 11, 3:00 AM PDT |
| Tahoe SW buoyJPL03 · 6233.0 ft | 53.8Oct 11, 3:00 AM PDT | 32.3Oct 11, 3:00 AM PDT | WSWOct 11, 3:00 AM PDT | 12.5Oct 11, 3:00 AM PDT | 17.4Oct 11, 3:00 AM PDT |
Snapshot checked October 11 at 4:12 AM PDT. Every field carries its own observation time. Wind converted from declared knots to mph. SUMAM elevation differs: NWS 8,643 ft; feed 8,399 ft. Missing fields remain unavailable.
Latest NWS remote observations ↗Open the live NWS station table
Eyes on the mountains
Five resorts. A live look.
Open a camera for the latest view supplied by the resort. Use its on-screen timestamp; a frozen image is not a current observation.
KirkwoodMtn
Cornice Cam
All official cameras ↗Palisades Tahoe / Alpine Meadows
Palisades resort camera
All official cameras ↗Sugar Bowl
Mid Mountain Lodge
MammothMtn
Main Lodge · 8,909 ft
All official cameras ↗Mt. Rose
Main Lodge
All official cameras ↗03 · Eyes out front
The Pacific. The storms. What’s next.
Long-range weather, El Niño, ARs and the winter storm track.
El Niño & ENSO · RONI replaces ONI
El Niño continues to strengthen. NOAA CPC’s October 8 discussion expects strong-to-very-strong conditions through January–March 2027, with more than an 83% chance of that persistence. For October–December, it gives an 83% chance of three-month RONI reaching at least +2.5°C. For Tahoe and KirkwoodMtn, storm tracks, temperatures and snow levels still decide the local outcome.
What changed: RONI versus ONI
ENSO means El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the connected pattern of Pacific Ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation. NOAA adopted the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) in February 2026 for operational ENSO monitoring and prediction.
- ONI: a three-month average of how far sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific’s Niño 3.4 region depart from their historical average.
- RONI: subtracts the average temperature departure across the tropical oceans from the Niño 3.4 departure, adjusts the result to a comparable variability scale, and takes a three-month average. That helps separate ENSO’s regional signal from broader ocean warming.
Latest NOAA readings
- Three-month RONI: +1.7°C for July–September 2026 (+1.69°C in CPC’s data file), up from +1.4°C for June–August. The current table uses ERSSTv6; recent values are preliminary and may be revised.
- Weekly relative Niño 3.4: +2.3°C for the week centered September 30, the latest weekly entry available at this check.
- Traditional weekly Niño 3.4: +3.2°C for that same week. Neither weekly reading is the three-month ONI or RONI.
A strong El Niño does not tell us how much snow Tahoe will get. Storm tracks, temperatures and snow levels decide whether we see rain, snain or snow.
ENSO sources checked October 11, 2026 at 4:12 AM PDT. Monthly discussion issued October 8; next scheduled discussion November 12. Weekly and seasonal observations keep their own periods.
NOAA CPC ENSO advisory ↗ · RONI history & method ↗ · Why NOAA adopted RONI ↗ · Weekly relative data ↗ · Traditional weekly data ↗
Coop’s long-range read
The Pacific and winter ahead
Days 1–7 · Colder showers and high Sierra snow
Light showers develop today and increase Monday. NWS Reno forecasts snow levels around 6,500–7,500 feet early Monday and lower levels near sunset. Amounts depend on shower timing. Drying and gradual warming return from Tuesday.
October 16–20 and October 18–24
CPC’s October 10 outlook favors warmer-than-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation across Northern California and western Nevada. Confidence is 4 out of 5 for both periods. These broad probabilities can contain individual cool or wet days.
October 24–November 6 · Weeks 3–4
CPC’s October 9 discussion favors warmth across much of the western and northern United States. It favors wetter-than-normal conditions across parts of California and the Great Basin toward the Lower Rio Grande Valley. That is a broad two-week probability, not a Tahoe snowfall amount or arrival date.
October · Updated monthly view
CPC’s September 30 update favors above-normal temperatures west of the Continental Divide, with the highest odds in California, western Nevada and southern Oregon. Below-normal precipitation is favored across nearly all of the West Coast and the northern and central Great Basin. Individual wet or cooler days can still occur.
Winter 2026/27 · The broader pattern
CPC’s September 17 seasonal outlook favors wetter-than-normal conditions across California during parts of winter. The October 8 ENSO discussion expects strong-to-very-strong El Niño conditions through January–March 2027. Storm temperatures and snow levels decide rain or POW locally; seasonal guidance cannot establish opening-day conditions.
CFSv2 · Current ensemble review
NOAA’s monthly and seasonal precipitation and temperature maps retain their own initialization and valid periods. Precipitation anomalies are mm/day and temperature anomalies are K, relative to 1991–2020. Current pressure anomaly guidance is unavailable.
Atmospheric rivers and large storms
CW3E’s October 8 outlook describes Rachel-related moisture and a multi-day rainfall event over the Southwest. Its atmospheric-river guidance focuses on Arizona and the Colorado River Basin. That does not establish a Tahoe AR rank or snowfall total. Tahoe’s weekend forecast remains tied to the evolving Pacific trough and moisture track.
Reviewed October 11. Each source retains its actual issue and valid period. Anomaly means a departure from its stated reference average; QPF is liquid precipitation; MSLP is mean sea-level pressure.
CPC extended outlook · Weeks 3–4 · NOAA CFSv2 maps · CW3E updates
GOES-East · North America observations
Infrared satellite observations, not a forecast or seasonal diagnosis.
GOES-East [FULLDISK] 0.04° · North America
ABI Channel 13 brightness temperature · °C
![GOES-East [FULLDISK] 0.04° · North America · Observed Oct 10, 11:29 AM PDT through Oct 11, 4:09 AM PDT.](https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/6627bd7c18b72448db6dc807/6979bb2d-1969-4819-b0e9-d4d7f2f2227b/goes_east_20261011_Middle.png?content-type=image%2Fpng)
Observed Oct 10, 11:29 AM PDT through Oct 11, 4:09 AM PDT. 35 source frames. Source: WeatherBell.
First, middle & last source frames
![GOES-East [FULLDISK] 0.04° · North America · First · Oct 10, 11:29 AM PDT](https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/6627bd7c18b72448db6dc807/9513b443-38ab-49d8-86cc-18d0ae48d5d3/goes_east_20261011_First.png?content-type=image%2Fpng)
First · Oct 10, 11:29 AM PDT ↗![GOES-East [FULLDISK] 0.04° · North America · Last · Oct 11, 4:09 AM PDT](https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/6627bd7c18b72448db6dc807/ba3080c2-9f51-4868-a9d3-0721ab50f0ad/goes_east_20261011_Last.png?content-type=image%2Fpng)
Last · Oct 11, 4:09 AM PDT ↗European model guidance · all maps
European model guidance
Latest verified source set first. Earlier maps and their dated interpretation are in the archive below.
Liquid precipitation, circulation and seasonal context retain their own source times. T850 is a pressure-level temperature, not a local snow level.
ECMWF AIFS ENS 15-day precipitation anomaly
Single map. Initialized October 10 at 5:00 PM PDT (October 11 00Z); valid October 25 at 5:00 PM PDT (October 26 00Z). Liquid anomaly in inches relative to ERA5 1991–2020. Source: WeatherBell.
ECMWF AIFS ENS pressure, precipitation and T850
6-hour liquid precipitation · inches; MSLP · hPa; 850mb temperature · °C
Initialized Oct 10, 5:00 PM PDT. Valid Oct 10, 11:00 PM PDT through Oct 25, 5:00 PM PDT. 60 source frames. Source: WeatherBell.
First, middle & last source frames
First · Oct 10, 11:00 PM PDT ↗
Last · Oct 25, 5:00 PM PDT ↗ECMWF AIFS ENS five-day height anomaly
500mb height · dam; anomaly · meters; ERA5 1991–2020
Initialized Oct 10, 5:00 PM PDT. Valid Oct 15, 5:00 PM PDT through Oct 25, 5:00 PM PDT. Each native header displays its complete five-day rolling window; still timestamps below are window ends. 41 source frames. Source: WeatherBell.
First, middle & last source frames
First · Oct 15, 5:00 PM PDT ↗
Last · Oct 25, 5:00 PM PDT ↗ECMWF Seasonal monthly precipitation anomaly
Liquid anomaly · inches; source M-climate baseline
October 1, 2026 monthly issue. Monthly valid periods October 2026 through April 2027; not a daily reissue. 7 source frames. Source: WeatherBell.
First, middle & last source frames
First · Sep 30, 5:00 PM PDT ↗
Last · Mar 31, 5:00 PM PDT ↗Extended & seasonal briefings
Extended and seasonal briefing
Use the October 11 briefing slides and European maps above. NOAA CPC outlooks retain their September 17 and 30 and October 8, 9 and 10 issue dates. The reviewed CFSv2 monthly and seasonal ensemble uses the initialization window printed on each current source map.
Current briefing graphics ↑ · Current European guidance ↑ · Official CFSv2 monthly and seasonal maps ↗
Play the extended & seasonal briefing
Know what the maps measure.
QPF anomaly
QPF is forecast precipitation measured as liquid water, including melted snow. An anomaly is the amount above or below a reference average. A monthly or seasonal inch anomaly is not a snowfall total.
MSLP anomaly
This is sea-level-adjusted air pressure compared with its reference average, in hPa. One hPa equals one millibar. It helps describe broad pressure patterns, not snow depth.
Ensembles & map spacing
An ensemble combines many possible forecasts. Agreement can build confidence, while disagreement widens the range. A 0.5° map helps show regional patterns, not individual Tahoe slopes.
Snow levels & storm confidence
Precipitation and cold air must arrive together. Local NWS guidance, elevation and the storm’s temperature profile matter more for the rain/snain/snow split than a single broad anomaly map.
Source notes: Shared NWS collection October 10 starting at 4:06 AM PDT. Reno discussion issued October 10 at 1:53 AM; Sacramento October 9 at 12:49 PM. Point forecasts, models and observations retain their own times. The October 1 ECMWF seasonal issue is current. Current resort snow measurements and dated avalanche ratings remain unavailable.
CPC extended outlook · CPC weeks 3–4 · CPC seasonal outlook · CW3E atmospheric river guidance
Coop’s read · Maps: WeatherBell / ECMWF.
Sierra Avalanche Center
